Portugal and Hungary each have 13 points, trailing Sweden by two for UEFA Group 1’s playoff spot (and Denmark by five for first place). Each team is hoping Denmark beats Sweden in Copenhagen, allowing Saturday’s winner in Lisbon to vault into the qualifying spot. The loser would stay at thirteen points and have to hope two Wednesday results go their way.

For that reason, this match will practically eliminate one of these two teams. Impractical scenarios occasionally happen, but these clubs can not plan on getting into the UEFA playoff if they lose on the weekend.

The scenario does not look any better if there is a draw. That would put each team on fourteen points. If Sweden loses, they stay at fifteen and would only need a win on Wednesday against Albania in Stockholm to clinch the playoff spot. A draw in Lisbon is even worse if Sweden springs the mild upset in Copenhagen. That would eliminate both Portugal and Hungary.

This preview is continued at The Kartik Report.

Individual match previews will be on The Kartik Report and Mad About Fútbol. Long form previews will be on World Soccer Reader.

Group 1

Denmark maintained their unbeaten run through qualifying with a 1-1 draw in Copenhagen, though they may feel harshly done after an 86th minute goal from Liédson drew the visitors even. The Danes, through Nicklas Bendtner, had held the lead since shortly before halftime.

Portugal had opened the match strong, showing some of the form that had at one time made them the group’s favorites. Their energy slowly waned. When it did, Denmark took control of the half, eventually taking the league shortly before the whistle.

The second half was a series of near chances for Portugal, though they often lost their way before the deciding moment. Denmark looked destined for three points before Liédson headed in a corner. Portugal, realizing their qualifying plight, was intent on a final goal that never came. Though out-of-context it was a respectable result, Portugal is one step closer to missing out on South Africa.

It was also a precarious result for Denmark, and had Hungary taken care of business at home against Sweden, Denmark’s lead atop the group could have been cut to one. Rather than beating the Swedes, Hungary fell victim to a 94th minute, tie-breaking goal from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, giving Sweden the three points and third place in the group (passing Portugal).

Ibrahimovic had been an injury doubt, but wearing the armband ceded to him because of Henrik Larsson’s injury, the Barcelona star kept Sweden in position to back into the group’s playoff spot (should Hungary and Portugal take points from each other in their two upcoming fixtures). Sweden is only one point behind Hungary, and if Portugal can get at least a draw on Wednesday in Budapest, the Swedes could be in second place by the end of the break.